Will December Rise or Fall? Key Events to Watch

The crypto market enters the final month of 2021 amid a persistent downturn. After 11 months of ups and downs, what direction will December take? Will it provide a satisfying conclusion to 2021, or deliver a shocking surprise?

To answer this question, we need to focus on several major events that have occurred and will occur in December: the release of U.S. November non-farm payroll and CPI data, the Federal Reserve's final interest rate meeting of 2021, and whether the crypto market's "Christmas crash" will materialize as the holiday approaches. These events may influence market movements to varying degrees and could even directly "end" the bull market, making them essential to monitor.

Beyond these major events, December also features other market-influencing developments, such as the OPEC conference, NATO summit, European Central Bank interest rate decision, and China's PMI data. We'll organize these events in a "December Crypto Market Financial Calendar" format at the end of this article.

Before diving into the main content, let's first review: historically, what has been Bitcoin's return rate in December?

We pulled Bitcoin data from the third-party data website TradingView and conducted screening and statistical analysis, with the following results:

Bitcoin's historical December returns (Source: OKX Learn)

From the chart above, we can see that historically, Bitcoin has generally posted positive returns in December, with more years closing higher. Over 10 years, 6 years saw gains while 4 years saw losses. The average return rate was 13.2%, showing relatively stable overall performance.

Looking at 2021 specifically, according to OKX platform data, Bitcoin rose in 6 of the past 11 months and fell in 5, essentially breaking even. As of now, Bitcoin's year-to-date gain is approximately 65%, still firmly within bull market territory.

December 3: Did Disappointing U.S. Non-Farm Data Trigger Market Crash?

At 21:30 Beijing time on December 3, the U.S. November non-farm employment report significantly underperformed expectations, with the smallest increase of the year, though the unemployment rate dropped considerably. New jobs added totaled 210,000, far below analysts' average expectation of 573,000; the unemployment rate further declined to 4.2%, exceeding market expectations of 4.5%.

The moment the data was released, Bitcoin experienced a brief rapid surge, reaching a high of $57,617 (OKX data), before entering a sustained decline. As of publication, it had fallen to a low of $41,241. Other digital assets followed Bitcoin's downward trajectory, with many declining over 20% or even 30%, turning the entire market "red."

In fact, not only did the crypto market decline, but the three major U.S. indices—Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500—also collectively fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2.5% intraday.

Analysts suggest that high uncertainty surrounding the Omicron variant, combined with disappointing employment data, prompted U.S. stock investors to sell before the weekend. This undoubtedly spilled over into the crypto market, reminding many "veteran investors" of the "3.12" crash when COVID-19 first ravaged the globe in 2020.

Fundamentally, the non-farm index is so important because it reflects the development of U.S. manufacturing and service industries, serving as a key indicator of U.S. economic health and directly influencing Federal Reserve monetary policy. Therefore, each non-farm index release day triggers major tremors in global financial markets, earning the night the nickname "Non-Farm Night."

So overall, has the U.S. economy improved? With only 210,000 new jobs added, U.S. economic development fell short of expectations, indicating insufficient economic growth. We know that whether for countries or companies, growth is the fundamental driver of development. Without sufficient growth, even temporary "prosperity" is difficult to sustain.

Therefore, based on new employment figures, the disappointing U.S. non-farm data means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in the short term. After the non-farm employment data was released, CME's "FedWatch" immediately issued a forecast: the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in the 0%-0.25% range in December is 100%, with a 0% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.

Of course, no pattern is 100% accurate, and investors need to approach patterns prudently, considering the combined effects of multiple influencing factors.

December 15: Will the Fed Meeting End the Bull Market?

At Beijing time on December 15, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce the results of its December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

In our previous article "Behind Market 'Volatility': Understanding Those Cyclical Events That ce Movements," we discussed how Fed meeting results can significantly impact all investment markets. If outcomes include tapering or rate hikes, they could trigger major market declines or even directly end the bull market.

So what will the December 15 Fed meeting bring?

Fed Chair Powell issued a "tough statement" earlier this month: pushing to discuss accelerating the taper (reducing bond purchases) at the mid-December FOMC meeting, and no longer describing inflation as transitory. Powell's view has been strongly supported by other Fed officials.

Powell's logic is that the Omicron virus is surging, risking supply chain disruptions and further inflation increases, so the Fed must accelerate liquidity withdrawal. Powell's sudden shift from dovish to hawkish has already caused sustained declines in global investment markets, including crypto.

While the market generally believes rate hikes are unlikely at this stage, there's growing consensus that the Fed is turning hawkish, meaning the era of massive liquidity injection may be pausing. If the Fed raises rates, will other central banks follow? Some analysts point out that if the new Omicron variant continues to drive inflation higher, Europe and emerging economies may raise rates synchronously, but this approach would be extremely limited in effectiveness while requiring the cost of slowed economic recovery and employment growth.

Current central bank rates of major world economies (Source: FX678)

Regardless, accelerating the reduction of bond purchases and future rate hikes are definitely major bearish factors. Every upcoming Fed meeting will be a critical event that investors must monitor.

December 25: The Crypto Market's "Christmas Crash"?

Christmas 2021 is approaching, potentially marking the crypto market's last major volatility point of the year.

As the most important holiday in Western countries, Christmas has historically triggered significant market fluctuations. Taking Bitcoin as an example, since major websites began recording Bitcoin prices in 2013, over 8 years Bitcoin has risen 3 times and fallen 5 times during Christmas, including major crashes in 2018 and 2019, and the 2017 rollercoaster that transitioned from bull to bear market. This is why some investors call it the "Christmas crash."

The market has yet to find a reasonable explanation for why Christmas periods see such dramatic volatility. If prices rise during Christmas, people say it's because Western countries want to pump prices for the holiday, or because foreign funds need to boost prices for year-end reports. If prices fall, people say Western investors are cashing out for holiday spending. Explanations for rises and falls vary widely with no consensus.

We can only say that based on historical data of Bitcoin's monthly price performance, Bitcoin shows the weakest gains in Q1 and the strongest in Q4, with Christmas serving as a transitional node.

Regardless of the reasons for Christmas volatility, history has shown the pattern. As investors, we need to pay special attention to market movements during this period and maintain proper risk controls.

Conclusion

Historically, Bitcoin's price peaks from the first two halving cycles both occurred in December of the second year after the halving: December 2013 saw Bitcoin's first halving cycle reach its peak before transitioning from bull to bear; December 2017 saw the second halving cycle peak, also transitioning from bull to bear. December 2021 happens to be "the second December" after the third halving. Will this cycle's peak occur now, transitioning from bull to bear?

We can hardly make accurate predictions about the future, but as mature investors, we must always maintain respect for the market and patience with price movements, patiently waiting for time to provide answers.

Bonus: December Crypto Market Financial Calendar

Regularly checking the financial calendar is a good habit for investors. Beyond unpredictable "black swan" events that can cause sudden market shifts, scheduled events can equally drive market frenzy.

We've compiled December's noteworthy financial events, hoping you can find your own investment insights and strategies in this financial calendar.

December Crypto Market Financial Calendar (Source: OKX Learn)

Disclaimer

This article may contain content related to products that are not available in your region. This article is provided for general informational purposes only and is not responsible for any factual errors or omissions contained herein. This article represents the author's personal views only and does not represent OKX's views. This article is not intended to provide any advice, including but not limited to: (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold digital assets; or (iii) financial, accounting, legal or tax advice. Holdings of digital assets (including stablecoins) involve high risk, can fluctuate significantly, and may even become worthless. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. Please consult your legal/tax/investment professional regarding your specific circumstances. Information appearing in this article (including market data and statistical information, if any) is for general reference purposes only. While all reasonable care has been taken in preparing this data and charts, no responsibility is accepted for any factual errors or omissions expressed herein. © 2025 OKX. This article may be reproduced or distributed in its entirety, or excerpts of 100 words or less from this article may be used, provided such use is non-commercial. Any reproduction or distribution of the entire article must also prominently state: "This article is © 2025 OKX and used with permission." Permitted excerpts must cite the article name and include attribution, for example "Article Name, [Author Name (if applicable)], © 2025 OKX". Some content may be generated or assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) tools. No derivative works or other uses of this article are permitted.

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