When "Jokes" Become Mainstream: How Long Can Dogecoin's "$1 Dream" Last?

Is Dogecoin Really the True Bitcoin?

After Dogecoin set a record with a weekly surge of 328.73%, its supporters launched #DogeDay420, seemingly hoping to strike while the iron is hot and push Dogecoin to the short-term target of $1. Such a frenzy in such a short time inevitably reminds people of the WSB showdown against Wall Street shorts in January.

Meanwhile, Dogecoin's Reddit community subscribers surged, with over 170,000 new users added in a week, bringing the total to over 1.4 million. Google Trends shows that recent global discussion interest in Dogecoin has surpassed Bitcoin.

OKX market data shows that on April 16, Dogecoin entered a straight-line upward mode, with its price touching $0.448 at its peak, with a maximum single-day gain of 239%, and its total market capitalization exceeding $50 billion, climbing to fifth place in the cryptocurrency market cap rankings.

Looking at a longer timeline, Dogecoin's maximum gain this year has reached 100 times. Many attribute Dogecoin's extraordinary surge this year to Tesla CEO Musk's "shilling" behavior. In addition to calling himself the "CEO of Dogecoin" and calling Dogecoin the "people's cryptocurrency," Musk is considered the main driver of this Dogecoin surge, as he is suspected to be associated with an anonymous address that controls 27% of Dogecoin's market supply.

As of April 20, Dogecoin's total market capitalization reached $49.75 billion, ranking 389th among global assets, behind well-known companies such as Vanke, Ford Motor, and Marriott International.

With such a rapid surge, risks naturally rise proportionally, so many people express that once the shilling stops, Dogecoin is highly likely to face a crash risk. After all, Dogecoin's chips are very concentrated, with the top twenty addresses holding over half of all Dogecoin (52.72%), and the largest address holding 36.7 billion Dogecoin, equivalent to 28.4% of the circulating supply, worth over $14.3 billion.

As of press time, Dogecoin is trading at $0.41.

"I Can No Longer Understand Dogecoin"

As an old project born in 2013, few could associate Dogecoin with a 100-fold surge, after all it has hovered below $0.004 for years, always presenting itself as "low-priced, approachable, and fun," mostly used for small-scale online tipping or entertainment-oriented red packet distribution. Yet it is precisely this Dogecoin that set a record of 100-fold surge in 106 days.

TradingView data shows that among the top ten mainstream cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Dogecoin ranks first with a year-to-date gain of 8221%, 13.8 times that of the second place.

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Many netizens express that they gave away tens of thousands of Dogecoin in red packets in recent years. If calculated at $0.41, the value would exceed $10,000, and they inevitably feel some regret when looking back.

A historical screenshot from CoinMarketCap on April 4 shows that Dogecoin's total market capitalization was $7.408 billion, ranking 20th in cryptocurrency. Half a month later today, Dogecoin's total market capitalization is $49.44 billion, surpassing USDT, ADA, DOT, etc., rising to 5th place in cryptocurrency rankings, with a total market capitalization increase of 567.39%.

In the global assets rankings compiled by Infinite Market Cap, Dogecoin ranks 389th, up 75 places from yesterday.

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Additionally, IntoTheBlock tweeted that last Friday (April 16), Dogecoin perpetual contract trading volume reached $69 billion, surpassing Ethereum's historical high of $68 billion in perpetual contract trading volume.

With Dogecoin's surge, many holders naturally made substantial profits. A Twitter user stated that if you bought $1,000 worth of Dogecoin on January 1, you could now buy a Tesla Model S.

Dogecoin's wealth effect brought in a large number of players. According to Subreddit Statistics, the "r/dogecoin" community added 170,000 new subscribers in a week, with total membership exceeding 1.4 million, up 732% from the beginning of the year.

Google Trends shows that Dogecoin's recent global popularity has surpassed Bitcoin, with the peak occurring on April 16.

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As of April 20, over 140,000 people have signed a petition on Change.org calling on Amazon to accept Dogecoin as a payment method, citing it as "fast, cheap, and stable."

Meanwhile, some opposition voices are also strengthening. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz stated that Dogecoin indeed has no utility, and previously when the Dallas Mavericks accepted Dogecoin payment, he expressed opposition, believing "the Dallas owner made a mistake and should put people in the safest, best things, not these joke tokens."

Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, which was surpassed by Dogecoin, directly warned that "the Dogecoin bubble will inevitably collapse and bring huge losses to retail investors."

Two months ago, Billy Markus, one of Dogecoin's co-founders, wrote a letter to all Dogecoin enthusiasts on Reddit. In the letter, he stated that people love to imagine Dogecoin reaching $1, at which point Dogecoin's market capitalization would exceed companies like Boeing and Starbucks, but does Dogecoin really deserve such a high market capitalization? He stated that he could no longer understand it.

"But Fate Loves Jokes"

Indeed, as a member of cryptocurrency, Dogecoin's existence is special. Its birth originated from a joke. Jackson Palmer from Adobe's Sydney marketing department was immersed in electronic currency research. Seeing Doge, he had a sudden inspiration and tweeted "Investing in Dogecoin is the next big opportunity." Unexpectedly, what was originally meant as a joke received support from technician Billy Markus. The two hit it off, and Dogecoin was quickly launched.

Dogecoin's inherent "nonsensical, meme" quality means its greatest characteristic is no value endorsement, no technical features, purely born for fun. However, with Reddit's push, Dogecoin immediately became popular. One month after its birth, Dogecoin soared to 14th place in the overall cryptocurrency rankings, with a market capitalization of $9.2074 million. Since its birth, although rated as "worthless," Dogecoin has remained popular worldwide for three reasons:

First, tipping and reward culture. Dogecoin co-founder Jackson Palmer stated that unlike Bitcoin, people participate not for speculation but as a method of expressing sharing and gratitude, such as tipping interesting posts with Dogecoin to enhance community communication and increase discussion heat.

Second, charity culture. Dogecoin is widely used in charity, such as helping the "Jamaican Bobsled Team" and three Indian athletes participate in the Sochi Winter Olympics, solving Kenya's water crisis, sponsoring NASCAR drivers to participate in races, etc.

Third, a cute and harmless appearance, and as the pioneer of crypto meme culture. The entertainment spirit behind Dogecoin (fun, happiness, inspiration, creativity) also brought it super high popularity. Data shows that Dogecoin has always had a large number of supporters domestically and internationally. The Reddit dog community has 1.4 million members, compared to Ethereum's 790,000 community members, while Litecoin has fewer than 300,000 members.

However, this seemingly "peaceful" Dogecoin underwent a qualitative change after entering 2021. This year, driven by imitation of the retail investor-driven GME movement and "promotion" by celebrities like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Dogecoin's price surged. Messages show that Musk's "cheerleading" had a direct impact on Dogecoin's rise.

On February 1, 2021, Musk stated in a Clubhouse livestream that Dogecoin becoming a world currency would be an amusing outcome. That day, Dogecoin rose 38.82%.

On February 4, Musk posted multiple tweets supporting Dogecoin, stating "There is no noble or lowly, only Dogecoin. Dogecoin is the people's cryptocurrency, you don't need to be rich to own it." On February 6, Musk initiated a vote about the future Earth currency. In this vote with over 2.43 million participants, over 70% voted for Dogecoin.

From February 4 to February 8, Dogecoin rose 184.81%.

On April 15, Musk posted a "dog barking at the moon" image. On April 16, Dogecoin welcomed a single-day surge of 179.6%.

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As for the two founders who created Dogecoin, Jackson Palmer long ago cleared his Twitter account and disappeared from the online world, while Billy Markus stated in the Dogecoin Reddit community that when he was fired in 2015, he sold all his Dogecoin and bought a used Honda outright.

As Musk said, "The most amusing and ironic outcome would be that Dogecoin becomes the Earth's currency in the future, but fate loves jokes."

Dogecoin = $1?

Besides Musk's shilling, a group of overseas celebrities also began promoting Dogecoin. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban stated that the Dallas Mavericks has completed 20,000 Dogecoin trades, becoming the world's largest Dogecoin merchant. American meat snack brand Slim Jim also posted multiple tweets involving Dogecoin on its official Twitter and interacted with Dogecoin developers.

Dogecoin supporters designated April 20 as Doge Day. To celebrate Doge Day, OKX launched a "Claim 100 Million Dogecoin" event for new users network-wide on this day.

On April 20, Snickers' official Twitter posted a tweet with the #DogeDay420 tag, along with an image of packaging featuring the Dogecoin pattern. However, this chocolate bar is not a physical product, only a "cool GIF image."

Currently, Dogecoin supporters on Twitter remain highly enthusiastic. As mentioned above, a Twitter user stated, "If you bought $1,000 worth of Dogecoin in early January, you would now have a Tesla Model S." And his second half was, "If you hold firm, you will get 4."

Currently, Dogecoin supporters have set a short-term target of $1 for Dogecoin. This means that at that time, Dogecoin's market capitalization would exceed $127 billion, comparable to companies like Dior or Hermès in terms of market capitalization.

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Regarding this round of Dogecoin surge, some analysts believe that part of it is attributed to retail investors' "GME" complex, while another part is driven by FOMO emotions from missing out on Bitcoin, causing them to flood into Dogecoin.

Facing the community frenzy, David Kimberley, an analyst at UK investment app Freetrade, stated, "Dogecoin's rise proves the 'greater fool theory'—people buy Dogecoin not because they think Dogecoin has any meaning or value, but because they hope others will rush in, drive up the price, and then they can sell and make a quick profit."

William, a researcher at OKX, stated that Dogecoin already exhibits some characteristics of a fan economy. Compared to mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Dogecoin is severely lacking in both technological innovation and application scenarios. However, Dogecoin has received strong endorsement and promotion from Musk, which can be said to mean that Dogecoin's future rise or fall will largely depend on Musk's 'promotion' effectiveness.

Blockchair data shows that a few large holders control most of Dogecoin's supply. reportedly, 98 wallets control 65% of Dogecoin, and the largest wallet alone accounts for 28% of Dogecoin's circulating supply. In fact, Dogecoin's top five wallet addresses hold 40% of Dogecoin's supply, so once large holder selling occurs, Dogecoin holders could face a stampede to exit.

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As of press time, we see that the Dogecoin craze has also brought about the surge of the so-called "cute pet sector," which speaks volumes about market heat.

Regardless, in 2021 we saw Dogecoin move from a "joke" to the mainstream. Some look forward to Dogecoin challenging $1, while others wait to short it at the high point. But Dogecoin founder Billy Markus emphasizes that his original intention in creating Dogecoin was to bring positive energy to the world.

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